The 2014 Republican primary is shaping up to be a real
doozy.
Just about all
the statewide action of this political cycle will be decided in less than a
week from right now. Thus, it is time to
make some SWAG predictions. (SWAG stands
for Scientific Wild A** Guess).
Here are my guesses in the key
races of governor, secretary of state and state superintendent of public
instruction:
Governor - Let’s start at the top where
two shrill and combative adversaries are challenging incumbent Gov. Matt Mead.
We find it
easy to endorse Mead. He has been a good governor. He has been a steady hand on
the helm. He sure has done little to embarrass himself or the state. If either
of his two main opponents would get elected, well, it would be a newspaper
columnist’s dream. But it would be a nightmare for Wyoming.
After four years, it appears that Mead has a tentative
streak at times. In his defense, no governor in modern times has had to deal
with an aggressive tea party movement and crazy situations like that involving
the irrepressible State School Supt. Cindy Hill.
The whole Senate File 104 episode was
explosive. Legislative leaders and the governor decided they had had enough of
the craziness in Hill’s Wyoming Department of Education. When they acted to
limit her powers it made sense. But the whole effort blew up in their faces
when the Supreme Court voted 3-2 against their actions. What a nightmare scenario
for all involved. But the legislators’ and the governor’s intentions were pure
and necessary.
Hill boasts a loud and supportive
following. But there are not enough of them who are willing to vote her in as
our next governor.
Dr. Taylor Haynes has lots of yard
signs around the state and has campaigned hard. He stubbed his toe, though,
with his zeal for converting public lands to state lands.
A prediction:
Mead 46,322
Haynes 28,743
Hill 28,666
Secretary of State – Contrary to the governor race, Wyoming cannot
lose no matter who wins this race. All are capable men who love this state and
bring quality experience to the job.
Ed Murray and Pete Illoway, both of
Cheyenne, appear to be the top candidates.
Pete may be best qualified but Murray is running a dynamite
campaign. His “Murray means business” is
the best slogan in the entire primary.
Clark Stith of Rock Springs and Ed
Buchanan of Torrington have also worked hard. This race could be close enough
that it is hard to easily pick the overall winner. But there can only be one victor.
Murray may set a record for money
spent on a Secretary of State race. In an
August primary, name recognition often is the deciding factor in close races.
Murray has an effective team and done just about everything right.
A prediction:
Murray 32,544
Illoway 32,329
Stith 20,868
Buchanan 17,954
State Supt. of Public Instruction – This is the only race where the
Democrat Mike Ceballos has an excellent chance to defeat the Republican nominee
in the November general election.
But this column is about the three
main GOP candidates.
Jillian Balow of Cheyenne has
emerged as the front-runner. Her
experience in her most recent state job at the Department of Family Services gives
her some clout among voters willing to check out her record.
Plus her roots in Worland, Thermopolis,
Gillette and Cheyenne will give her a statewide pull that the other candidates
lack.
Bill Winney of Bondurant is an old
friend and he would serve the state well.
I am not sure he has been able to get the statewide traction that Balow has
managed to finish first. He has run before and lost in statewide elections.
Sheryl Lain of Cheyenne will be
hurt by her close connection to outgoing School Supt. Cindy Hill. The majority of Wyoming folks just want all
that drama to go away. It is fair to say that Wyoming people are suffering from
Cindy Hill fatigue.
A prediction:
Balow 41,922
Winney 34,856
Lain 23,511
At this point, neither Mark
Gordon’s State Treasurer’s race or Cynthia Cloud’s State Auditor’s race are
competitive and do not require comment.
We would like to thank all
candidates for seeking public office in Wyoming. Running for office in this time of constant
social media attacks can be almost unbearable.
Even if you are not voting for a certain
candidate, be sure to thank him or her for their quest for public service.
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