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1445 - General election predictions for Wyoming

You would normally think that a Wyoming general election would have some exciting close races. And if you predict the outcomes, you must be some sort of riverboat gambler.

         Not so this year, as the races are pretty cut and dried except for one.

         The most contested race is the State School Superintendent’s Race with better candidates than in recent years.  Republican Jillian Balow has the edge because of her party affiliation over Democrat Mike Ceballos. Wyoming could not lose no matter who finishes on top.

         I have worked with Ceballos on a number of projects and consider him a friend.  He is a proven leader and an expert on all phases of Wyoming education.  He was chairman of the P16 Education Commission for years and demonstrated the depth of his education knowledge. 

         Balow touts her organizational ability and the fact that she helps oversee a multi-million dollar budget at the Department of Family Services. These are credible accomplishments to tout in a statewide race and compared to Cindy Hill, who is occupying that office now, Balow would be a gigantic improvement.

         Four years ago, I thought former State Sen. Mike Massie could beat Hill, but he got destroyed. Hill doubled his vote totals to the surprise of many. 

         Biggest difference this year is that Ceballos is a proven conservative businessman with lots of Republican backers. He is running a much stronger race than Massie did because of this, but is it enough?

         I will vote for Ceballos because I know him better. And also because I believe he is the best person for the job in the entire state right now.  But either way, the state will be in much better shape than it has been with this seat for many years.

         Vote predictions:

         Jillian Balow, GOP – 93,143

         Mike Ceballos, Dem – 92,765

         The governor’s race should be another shoo-in for incumbent Matt Mead.

         He has endured criticism, which is unusual for a sitting Republican governor with his pedigree. His grandfather was the beloved governor and U. S. Senator Cliff Hansen. His mother Mary Mead lost a close race for governor to Mike Sullivan in 1990.

         But Mead has had to deal with the crazy Cindy Hill situation, the rise of the Tea Party and the first real Wyoming campaign that involved Social Media. 

         Now he is dealing with a write-in campaign by GOP primary loser Taylor Haynes, who wants to run for Wyoming governor to combat Ebola.

         Four years ago, Mead coasted to an easy win over Leslie Petersen. It will happen again.

         Meanwhile, his opponent Pete Gosar has run a good clean campaign as the Democrat. If this race were 25 years ago, Gosar would have a chance. But not today with Wyoming’s almost total Republican electorate.

         Vote predictions:

         Matt Mead, GOP – 114,991

         Pete Gosar, Dem – 55,293

Dee Cozzens, Lib. – 6,522

Don Willis, Ind. – 2,134

         Taylor Haynes, write in – 9,321

         Ed Murray won a hard-fought GOP primary battle for Secretary of State and faces two fringe candidates in the general. There is no Democrat running in this election.

         Murray is still campaigning hard and has put 50,000 miles on his rig. He deserves high marks for continuing this road trip across our great state.

         Vote predictions:

         Ed Murray, GOP – 140,571

         Jennifer Young, Const. – 31,611

         Kit Carson, Lib. – 8,544

         U. S. Senator Mike Enzi deserves reelection and the lack of big-time competitors shows just how effective and popular he really is.

         Enzi is not using his large war chest to win this race. He will win it by good old-fashioned meet-and-greets. Had Liz Cheney stayed in this race, this past summer`s Wyoming primary election would been in the headlines all across the country.  Thankfully she bowed out last Dec. 31, as it was an un-winnable race for her.

         I am sure Enzi will be relieved when this campaign is over so he can go back to work.

         If the Republicans regain control of the Senate, Enzi will be in a position to do some amazing things for his home state. We can’t wait.

         Predictions:

         Mike Enzi, GOP - 152,333

         Charlie Hardy, Dem – 27,145

         Joe Porambo, Lib. – 4,378

         Curt Gottshall, Ind. – 4,153

         In other races, incumbent Cynthia Lummis will easily defeat her opponents. We send her condolences for the death of her husband.

         State Treasurer Mark Gordon and State Auditor Cynthia Cloud have no competitors.

         Be sure to vote and if you see any of these candidates, thank them for jumping into the political fray.