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Sunday, December 28, 2008
852 - A scary future to behold for Wyoming and the world
Like most Wyomingites, it appears to me that 2009 will be a different kind of year than the ones we have been experiencing so far this century.
As one of the rare states that has seen its economy grow and its unemployment rate remain low, Wyoming has enjoyed prosperity rarely seen across our great land.
While looking into my crystal ball, the image I see offers up a murky view, indeed. It is harder to predict our future right now than any time in the past several decades.
Three reasons it is so hard to make these predictions are local, state and national concerns.
Locally, job growth continues to be thwarted by infrastructure problems, primarily the lack of affordable housing. Statistically, we are among the leaders in the country in job growth and population growth, per capita, but we still lag in key areas.
If out-of-state workers just come to Wyoming and do the work and then go home, it will continue to foster the colony-mentality of our state.
Statewide, our biggest industries are energy followed by the much-smaller tourism and by the even smaller agriculture sector. Plus our fledgling manufacturing sector is being seriously impacted by this economic downtown and employee recruitment problems.
On a national scale, we have seen $30 trillion in financial assets vanish in the past six months. This number is so big it is impossible to comprehend. You can rarely find a family in the country who has not lost a substantial chunk of their savings and retirement benefits.
I enjoy coffee with a group of guys my age or so and, to a man, they have lost tens of thousands of dollars in their retirement accounts. Not a pretty picture and the discussions can get a little nervous. Yet, most folks feel it will bounce back.
So with the above as a setting, and throwing caution to the wind, here are a few fearless predictions for 2009:
• The country may be saved from the impending electric blackouts and brownouts for a year and two because the economy is flat and growth is stagnant.
Demand for power ultimately will continue to grow but the ability to supply it, is on hold due to cancellation of so many proposed coal-fired power plants.
Coal continues to be nation’s bad boy when it comes to pollution, which is somewhat unfair. The Environmental Protection Agency recently bowed out from canceling coal plant construction, leaving licensing decisions to the states.
Yet one of the biggest sources of pollution that may be causing global warming is exhaust from cars and trucks. It can predicted that serious discussions will ensue concerning a move toward electric cars powered by coal fired plants generated electricity and natural gas powered trucks.
• The state of Wyoming has seen its investment portfolio lose over $1 billion of its value in recent months and the state retirement system lose $1.5 billion during the same time.
Severance taxes will continue to flow into the state’s coffers at rates that will be the envy of other states but still not as high as over the past decade. The state needs to vigorously audit energy companies so that all taxes that are due are being collected.
• Readers of this column have read the term “Wyoming’s recession-proof economy” many times before, which was written with the belief that energy demand will continue to grow.
This appears to still be true but the pace will slow for a few years.
• The biggest worldwide crisis will be food. We have less food in reserve today than any time in the last 50 years. The fact that our nation’s breadbasket states and countries like Brazil and Argentina are now growing food for fuel (ethanol) is driving this totally unnecessary crisis.
• An oddball series of predictions:
I think Venezuela will oust Hugo Chavez.
Another wild prediction is that Osama Bin Laden will be captured and it will cause more problems with him in custody and getting ready for trial than when he was on the loose in the mountains of Afghanistan.
And I fear there will be a terrorist attack of major proportions here in the USA in 2009. And it will not be Al Qaida, but rather by a Timothy McVeigh-type, a homegrown character.
Last, but not least, my brother Jerry in San Diego predicts that his Chargers will soundly thrash the Broncos and get into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Heck, it’s been a nutty year so far.
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Sunday, December 21, 2008
851 - Today, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2008, is darkest day of year
Today, Sunday, Dec. 21 is the year’s shortest day and follows what was the longest night of the year.
If if seemed like a never-ending night, well, it certainly was.
The good news is that the days will be longer for a whole year.
My late father always looked forward to this day. He would have a spring in his step, as he got up as early to mark the fact that we had all made it through one more dark winter season. “The future is going to be much brighter, no doubt about it!” he might be saying, if he were still alive.
The expression “darkest days” has come to mean more than just a winter solstice, what with the national economic meltdown that is going on.
President-elect Barack Obama is carrying the hopes and dreams of an entire country on his back as he prepares to take on the most powerful job in the world Jan. 20.
There is a lot of symbolism in our country today as we celebrate our winter solstice. Perhaps the upcoming presidency of Mr. Obama will signal the end to a period of economic darkness? Hope so.
He has announced that he will be aggressive in solving the national malaise that has been in the news constantly in the past six months.
Is it just a coincidence that the word – depression – is used to describe both a personal emotional meltdown and a national economic meltdown?
Nobody dares admit that we are closing in on a national depression, but some signs are pointing in that direction. It may be up to the new president and the Democrats in Congress to figure out how to solve it.
I would offer them one important piece of advice: if you want your solution to work on a universal scale, you must figure out a way to spread the pain around evenly.
Most everyone is willing to make sacrifices if they believe others are doing it, too.
This is exactly what is happening with the Detroit auto workers when some leaders are pushing them to take pay cuts down to the same level as the auto workers at the Toyota and Nissan plants down south.
And although the arguments being made by the heads of the auto companies have sounded pretty lame, perhaps the lamest are the claims by the head of the United Auto Workers. The UAW folks just do not appear ready to do their parts to keep their factories in existence. What a shame.
But I have some good news to report, too.
I am writing this on a Sunday afternoon a week ago, after witnessing quite an outpouring of good cheer.
More than 200 teeming baskets of food, books, toys and games were distributed to needy families here in the Lander area by a smiling group of Elks members who tackled the job cheerfully in –7 temperatures.
Yes, it was cold, but you would never know it by the looks on the faces of these folks.
For many of them it was a three-generation event with grandpa, a son and a grandchild tagging along making sure the deliveries were made.
What a great lesson in giving about what this season is all about.
And if you think there are not any needy folks around, did you see the story about the farmer south of Cheyenne in Colorado who offered free vegetables to folks who came to his farm and dug them up?
More than 40,000 people showed up. The traffic jam stretched for miles up and down I-25.
Yes, there are needs out there during these dark days of December.
And more on the subject of dark, State Sen. Cale Case (R-Lander) says he will once more introduce legislation to protect Wyoming’s dark spaces against light pollution.
In too many places, mainly our cites and towns, the lighting systems being used waste half their energy by pointing the light in all directions.
By being more vigilant, the light can be directed downward which uses less energy and opens up a whole new vista of nighttime viewing.
Over Thanksgiving, we spent the night at our daughter’s family cabin at 8,000 feet in the Wind River Mountains.
It was a moonless night with no clouds. The views of the stars, the constellations, the Milky Way and satellites were unprecedented.
As an old Boy Scout, it was easy for me to spot constellations like Orion, Ursa Major and Canis Major. What a night!
Cale is on to something there.
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Sunday, December 14, 2008
850 - Christmas on my mind
As we all prepare for the biggest holiday of the year, it is perhaps a good idea to reflect that we are now living in the most interesting of times.
Here in Wyoming we have much for which to be thankful. Our economy is strong, and our state coffers are still brimming with energy tax dollars.
But much of the rest of our country is not so secure.
On a personal note I have a brother who is in the vehicle-selling business who is losing his shirt (and possibly his business) in Minnesota. Another brother in the computer industry in San Diego may be facing cutbacks. A son-in-law in Dallas could lose his job because of the national slowdown in the telecom industry.
Although we seem to be immune here, it does not mean that those people we love in other parts of the country aren’t going through difficult times.
As we plan what presents to buy and what holiday activities to spend our money on, well, it is easy to take the position that maybe we should be cutting back.
And yet cutting back, in some ways, is what is slowing our national economy to a standstill.
As a long-time local newspaper publisher, I know what Christmas season means to our small town businesses. Perhaps it would be an appropriate idea this year to not shop for bargains on the Internet or head for the big city malls. Even if we are spending less, we should try to spend it at home.
As this column is being published, here in Lander a local committee has raised money for over 200 Christmas food baskets, distributed today to needy families.
Even here in the quite prosperous Lander area, more than 200 families were identified as needing help. This group raises $10,000 from the community. This money is spent on groceries, toys and books so that hard up folks can have a nice holiday.
Efforts like this are happening all across the Cowboy State, and we commend those folks who understand “the reason for the season.” A surprise benefit to those doing this work is that they end up getting more out of it than the person on the receiving end. It does feel better to give than to receive.
The mental state of people during this time of year is a cause for worry, too.
An incident that occurred here in Wyoming is heavy on my mind. A friend of one of my adult children was found dead from suicide. This person had had a problem with employment because of an accident on the job, was divorced and had recently been evicted because of no money for rent.
As a virtual homeless person and staying with a friend, well, the lethal mixture of alcohol and a firearm ended a life. And perhaps the gaiety of the season may have contributed, too.
Co-workers and acquaintances of the victim are feeling guilt and terrible regret. Sure, they knew things were not going well for their friend, but who would have thought?
And I guess that is the point.
Because this is such a busy time of year, it is tough enough to deal with your own problems, let alone be worrying about everyone else, too. But concern for others truly is the reason, well, you know the drill.
On a lighter note, so what do we buy for our loved ones this year?
I am a big fan of books, and a few come to mind. A huge picture book called Wind River Country by Bayard Fox is on our list of gifts. The introduction in it is by movie star Matthew Fox of the hit TV show LOST. He is a native of Crowheart.
Doug Osborn of Buffalo recommends Cheney, which is the definitive book about our homegrown Vice President. I have read it, too, and it is terrific. Lynne Cheney’s book Blue Skies, No Fences is a wonderful memoir of growing up in Wyoming. No politics in that one, though.
Wyoming recently lost a great photographic talent when Mike McClure died. His book Artifact: A Cultural Geography of Wyoming is a classic. A CD featuring Christmas music by the choir of Wyoming Catholic College is also available this time of year.
Anything by C. J. Box is also a good pick.
And we might modestly suggest that quality bookstores have copies of two books by this columnist in stock, too. Happy shopping.
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Monday, December 8, 2008
849 - Size matters especially when you are small
Does size matter? It sure does when you are Wyoming, whose massive geographic size has nothing to do with its great advantages of being the smallest state in the union when it comes to population.
Spanning 97,818 square miles, the 523,000 people occupying our state are unique in all the USA. For example, we are the only state that does not have a city larger than 60,000.
The New York Times recently did a story bemoaning, in the writer’s opinion, the horribly unfair U. S. constitution and how it makes each voter in Wyoming to be the most powerful and influential in the country.
The story was accompanied by a map, which showed the relative size of each state when it came to the individual influence of each voter.
Wyoming is huge and dominates the map. Two of the smallest states are California and New York. You can locate the map by googling New York Times as “how much is your vote worth?”
The Times article points out that a Wyoming vote is worth three and a half times what a vote in Florida is worth.
This whole discussion is about how the Electoral College was set up by our founding fathers to allow small-population states to have more influence than large-population states. We should be thrilled that after 221 years, this system is still in place.
Steve Mankowski, a local constitutional expert, said: “This whole discussion is one of the compromises struck in 1787 to assure small states that they wouldn`t be trampled by a tyranny of the more populous states.
“With it, Wyoming is outnumbered by California by only 18 to 1. Without it, California rolls over Wyoming at 55 to 1! Sounds like a reasonable trade-off in a republic from which states are not allowed to secede,” he concludes.
So, small is good?
In another way where Wyoming’s oddball size comes into play is when you factor in that the federal government owns or controls 47 percent of the land in our state.
Thus, although we want to believe we have control over things here, the reality is that folks in Washington, D. C, control almost half of our property.
With the recent election of Barack Obama, a lot of skeptics in Wyoming are concerned that he could be a repeat of Bill Clinton. President Clinton’s Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt promoted a very strong environmental agenda, which limited energy development in Wyoming.
It was the Clinton-Babbitt agenda, written largely by Vice President Al Gore, which put the brakes on development of a much-needed expanded national electrical grid. That delay has put the country behind the eight ball when it comes to getting electricity delivered from the hinterlands like Wyoming to the population centers.
And yet there are folks who believe the emergence of powerful Democrat Senators out west will force the new administration to pay attention to our energy interests.
Montana, Colorado and New Mexico all see both of their senators as Democrats going into next year.
An excellent newspaper article by Chris Merrill here in Lander quoted former Wyoming Sen. Al Simpson of Cody on the subject:
"The last one, with Bill Clinton and (Al) Gore they really just didn`t understand," Mr. Simpson said. "One was from Arkansas and the other was from Tennessee and they had no public lands of any significance in their states.”
This time around, Western Democrats will have more influence with the president, and President-Elect Obama has shown more of a propensity to be sensitive to Western concerns, Simpson said.
The former Senate Majority Whip also was quoted: “This time around, as opposed to during the Clinton years, the West also has several thoughtful and forceful Democrats, including (Wyoming Gov. Dave) Freudenthal, who already have garnered the president-elect`s attention.
“Montana has Democratic Sens. John Tester and Max Baucus, for example, and Tester is a guy who is trying to do outreach and collaboration," Simpson said.
“Colorado`s two U.S. senators are now Democrats, and the state`s senior senator, Ken Salazar knows the game. Colorado`s new senator, Mark Udall, is thoughtful about the West and New Mexico has two Democratic senators, as well, Tom Udall and Jeff Bingaman.
“I`m not concerned that we`re going to be left in the cold," former Sen. Simpson said. "Our pleas will be heeded, and we will have a voice."
The former senator’s observations are encouraging in a time when it would be easy to worry about Wyoming’s national influence being on the wane.
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