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Monday, January 19, 2009
904 - An Extreme Makeover for the USA in 2009?
Thank God for living in such interesting times!
What a gift it is to experience what is happening today in our vast and great country. To see the greatest country the world has ever seen being nearly brought to its knees by two distant wars, a worldwide war on terror and the worst economic conditions in 80 years well, this is exciting.
And terrifying.
We in Wyoming joined with folks from the world this week as we inaugurated a new president, who incredibly is an African-American and who is young.
President Barack Obama is short when it comes to presidential experience. But he is long on idealism and optimism.
Yikes. Is that enough? Just over half the people in America last November thought so. And, so, here we are.
Like the most famous idealist of all, Carl Sandburg, said, when he described what it meant to be one: “I am an idealist. I don’t know where I am going, but I am on my way.”
And so, with that, here we go.
As proud as we are of our country, it is oh, so obvious that we have huge components of American life that need to be dealt with. Here is a short list:
• Education systems will be on trial. We are trailing the rest of the world. But there is a quick fix if we had the will to do it. We need to increase the length of the school year by 20 percent and get rid of a three-month summer vacation. We need to add rigor to the system, too. So do we have the will?
Until we do, we are creating a two-tiered society where a small percentage of our youth are getting good educations and the rest will fall behind, not just in this country, but also in the rest of the developed world.
Wyoming, as the least populated state, could lead this revolution.
• Manufacturing will be a huge issue. The unions will take a big hit, which is probably unfair in many places. Is it fair for a person making $20 an hour to use his or her tax dollars to rescue an autoworker making $60 an hour? Not a good trade-off.
Our auto business is in trouble because of labor costs (and pension costs) but also because we are now making pretty good cars.
In tough times, people just are not buying new cars. They are choosing to fix up their current ones. Even if we can fix our auto companies with billions of dollars, the biggest question is who will buy their new cars?
• Our “consumption society” is over. Pundits say the economy will get moving again when people start buying again. Whoa, why would they? People already have too much stuff.
This economy will create a whole new generation of savers. That is good in the long run.
• The average citizen always felt that since they did not have much money in savings, they would still have options in tough times. They would either cash in the equity in their home or spend on credit cards. Both those options are now gone in many places.
This creates a panic situation for millions in today’s middle class America.
• Energy will be a big issue. It is easy to predict that the green trends sweeping the country may take a hiatus as soon as the electricity goes off around the country.
The brownouts and blackouts originally predicted for this year may now happen a year later, but they are coming. There is not enough capacity in the country’s power plants to keep up to the future demand.
The old joke about the guy who forgot all about draining the swamp when he was up to his waist in alligators could apply here.
This will have huge impacts on Wyoming, as our state is the energy breadbasket for the country.
• Retirement, what retirement? As a subject near to my heart, I think the whole concept of retirement will change drastically, except for government workers.
Pensions are threatened and 401 (k) accounts are getting clobbered. Healthy people can expect to work full-time or part-time until they are at least 70. Most will not mind it all that much.
• There are a great many other important topics that will be coming up but these are on my mind today.
The term “extreme makeover” certainly comes to mind when you see what needs to be done to get our country back on track.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
903 - The end of Wyoming`s Golden Age?
As Wyoming’s best and brightest leaders gather in Cheyenne, all the normal busywork and duties are occupying their time. But what is really on their minds is the question: Could Wyoming be headed for another bust?
Most of them endured the terrible 20-year period from 1982 to 2002 when our state sank into its worst depression ever and then ever-so-slowly pulled itself out of it.
When I predicted the current “golden age” back in 2002, while running for governor, most observers thought I was loony.
But the evidence was there and times quickly brought what was perhaps the best economy in our history. We have been the envy of the rest of the country. Billion-dollar tax budget surpluses in a state with just a half million people was news that even made the New York Times.
Now, here we are just seven years later and people are getting skeptical. Is the bloom off our rose?
For all practical purposes, Wyoming is still a lot like a colony. Our state is a place that has abundant natural resources where huge international companies come in and extract raw materials as fast as they can. Then these faceless, unseen entities haul or ship these materials out of state as fast as possible.
With a colonial mentality, we could suffer. Lots of folks, myself included, find it easy to get nervous about our economy during these times.
One of our Republican legislators was teasing me last Saturday and said: “What happened to your golden age? Could it be over so soon?”
So it seemed like maybe this could be a good time to try to answer those questions. Here are my conclusions concerning the future of our Wyoming economy:
• First, our economy has seen its energy sector grow to an unheard of size. Although we are just a small state, we export more energy to the rest of the USA than any country in the world. The numbers are gigantic. We are number one in coal and number two in natural gas. We are near the top in uranium.
Sure, demand for energy across the country will decline as the national economy softens, but things will not come to a screeching halt. The only thing slowing down is the projections of growth.
Spot prices for coal and natural gas are low but most of the product mined and drilled here is being sold at contract rates that are not affected so much by the ups and downs of the market.
As the country tries to get off its addiction to coal, which is not likely for a long time, it will have to turn to natural gas. Again, we are the abundant providers of this clean fuel, which is embraced by states like California.
Biggest problem with Wyoming has been reluctance of the state government to encourage the construction of more power plants here, both coal and natural gas. That is how our economy can really prosper – by exporting pure energy, not raw materials like some African colony.
Do we have legislators enlightened enough to promote the concept of public-private ventures to build such projects?
• Second, I have become a persistent windbag myself when it comes to wind power. We are the country’s most windy state and our product is more reliable than the inconsistent breezes you find in Texas or California.
Does anyone who lives here doubt the reliability and persistence of our wind?
I foresee a time when many of our breezy ridgelines will have wind farms on them.
Such wind farms are a blessing. It is easy to respect those folks who take a NIMBY approach (not in my backyard), but we need to capitalize on this uniquely Wyoming product. Let’s have wind farms in most windy places.
I like renewable energy. Wyoming can be the poster state for it.
• Third, although it has been surprising that our population has not grown that much, perhaps this next decade will see more people moving here.
Another 100,000 people in our state would add rather than detract from our quality of life.
And the real resource of the future is people. We need a critical mass of workers and inspired citizens in order for our state to reach its potential.
So, with the above said, I contend that, sure, we need to be aware of what is happening to the national economy. But with smart leaders and good programs, Wyoming is in a position to capitalize on the national malaise rather than succumb to it.
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Wednesday, January 7, 2009
902 - Being blown away by all that wind energy in Wyoming
The amount of energy swirling around you in the maelstrom that is eastern Wyoming can be overwhelming.
This is being written following a harrowing car trip that took my family and me on I-25 south of Douglas to the Wyoming State line and beyond into Colorado.
This stretch is, arguably, the most consistently windy place in the United States. And a map released a year ago showed this area as the most consistent site for future wind farms.
Only thing holding back wind farms here is the lack of a grid to transport the electricity to more populous areas. And those power lines are on the drawing boards right now.
But, oh, the energy.
We stopped at the Dwyer Junction rest area (very nice, good job WYDOT), and could barely get our car doors closed. The wind was over 60 mph.
One of the reasons we are on I-25 instead of the shorter I-80 is that I am uncomfortable driving on I-80 and competing with the thousands of semi trailer trucks that traverse that route daily.
No truck problem on I-25 on this day. Most of the truckers had their semis huddled in shelter. Four of them were off the road on their sides in piles of debris near Cheyenne. Heard one driver broke both arms and a leg.
This north-south stretch of I-25 is a major travel route, but the big news concerning it still harkens back to the wind. With the rush toward renewable energy, this stretch of Wyoming is in high demand.
There have been news stories in the area where landowners are being romanced to sell wind rights. Sort of like an old-fashioned land rush or gold rush as wind farm developers seek to stake valuable claims.
In some cases, landowners have reportedly banded together to form districts so buyers can’t play one against the other. Sounds like a good plan.
Wyoming is the country’s most windy state and this eastern area just west of I-25 is among the most consistently windy. Our average wind speed of 12.9 mph tops the country, according to the governor’s web page.
The landmark hovering over this area is 10,274-foot tall Laramie Peak. Hard to comprehend how windy it can be up there. On the days that I was traveling, a huge lenticular cloud extended out from its summit, indicating strong consistent winds.
This mountain must get some crazy weather as all that wind tries to rush eastward only to run smack dab into this rocky monolith jutting up from the plains.
Laramie Peak was always the first mountain that most Oregon Trail pioneers saw. It must have been some sight to all these flatlanders as they were trekking across the prairies. Oddly, the wind is rarely mentioned in those old journals. Must have been terrible, though.
Today, all this wind energy is starting to make some folks see some serious money opportunities
Two big wind farm projects were in the news this past summer, as was proposed construction of a huge line to carry Wyoming wind power. Two separate companies, backed by billionaires, Phil Anschutz of Denver and Warren Buffet of Omaha, could provide as much as 6,000 megawatts of electrical power generated in Wyoming and then sent to the desert southwest.
Apparently the experts looked at three ways to provide renewable energy to Southern California, Nevada and Arizona. They looked at concentrated solar power on-site, wind turbines there and wind turbines one thousand miles away in Wyoming.
To no one’s surprise who has driven I-25 in the winter, our wind is strong and consistent. They discovered you could build turbines here and transport the power that far and it would still be cheaper than solar or wind projects located there.
The problem with wind in the desert southwest is there is not much of it. And when they need it the most (hot August days), the wind quits blowing. This is amazing good fortune for our fledgling wind industry.
After all these years, people are getting serious about wind energy here. Seems like everyone, everywhere is talking about Wyoming’s abundant gusts. As my friend Jerry Swan of Cheyenne says: “Who would have ever thought 50 years ago that Wyoming wind would someday become a valuable natural resource?”
If you have any doubts about the strength of our wind energy resources, I dare you to drive down I-25 just about any time during these winter months. You just might get blown away.
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Sunday, January 4, 2009
WBR05 - Here are 20 business tips for this economy
My first job was delivering a daily newspaper when I was 9 years old. It was hard work for a little kid. Seems like I have been working hard every since.
It always seemed that hard work was a virtue. It seemed like nobody worked as many hours as I did. As a budding entrepreneur with no financial base to draw from and a young family to support, the only way to get ahead was by out-working those around me.
Now, after working as hard as possible for 53 years, it is easy to come to the unusual conclusion that hard work is not what it is cracked up to be.
Instead, I vote for smart work.
This concept came to me at a young age, although as a youth, it was impossible for me to implement it.
I helped run the family gas station while in junior high and high school in a tiny town in northeast Iowa. My dad ultimately paid me $25 per week and all the gas my 1951 Ford Victoria could burn. It was a fun time, once the work was over.
But I caught grief from my dad when it came time to shovel off the driveway or just sweep it. He would see me there leaning on my broom or my shovel, trying to figure out an easier way to do it. The drive was huge, and surely there was a better way?
My dad’s mantra was: “Bill, the time you are wasting thinking about an easier way, you could have already done it. Now get cracking!”
Perhaps that was the beginning of my quest to figure out ways of working smarter rather than working harder.
During my time on this planet I have seen thousands of people who have worked very hard. Sadly, many of them did not find what could be considered financial success. They made a living and lived a decent life, but did they get ahead financially? I am not so sure.
And this is surely not a knock on all those hard-working people who live very happy lives and serve all our needs. But there might have been a better way.
So, what about working hard AND smart?
Let me lay down my list of 20 things I have learned when it comes to working smart and operating a successful business. This list is the result of my being directly involved in more than 30 businesses:
1. In business, timing is everything.
2. Sell to the customer what the customer wants to buy.
3. Understand the 80:20 rule and apply it to your business.
4. Hire outstanding people, pay them well and get out of their way.
5. It took me a long time to figure this out, but I now consider loyalty the most important attribute of employees in a small company.
6. Love your audience. If you do not truly appreciate your customers, you are destined for failure or, at most, limited success.
7. Pay attention to trends. Business is moving at the speed of light. Never stop learning. Embrace the World Wide Web. Learn social networks and Web 2.0.
8. Have mentors. Cultivate them.
9. You will learn more from your failures than your successes.
10. Your health and the health of your family, your staff and your customers should be a top priority.
11. Manage your cash and protect your credit. Cultivate your very own personal banker and keep him or her totally informed, especially when times are rocky.
12. Any size business can learn from business theorists. Four of my favorite entrepreneurial experts are Tom Peters, Mark McCormack, Peter Drucker and W. Edwards Deming (of Powell and the University of Wyoming).
13. “What gets measured gets done,” said the late Mr. Deming. It is your business and you have to be smarter than your lawyer and your accountant. (Or that trusted bookkeeper.)
14. Anything worth doing is worth doing poorly the first time. This is another way of saying practice makes perfect.
15. Remember that experience is a mean schoolmarm. She gives you the test first and the lesson afterward.
16. Be green. Think globally. Act locally.
17. Embrace your competitors. Thank God for fair competition. Study your competitors, and it will be the best education you can get. Anticipate future competitors. Today, competitors are everywhere and arrive almost instantaneously.
18. Sometimes when business fails, it really is NOT your fault. Move on. This rule applies in today’s fast-moving, erratic economy more than any time in history.
19. Unfortunately, we live in a time when it is easy for employees to steal from you. It is your business and, frankly, you just cannot be so trusting. Follow Ronald Reagan’s advice: “trust, but verify.”
20. Always give your customers more than they expected. You have succeeded when your customers are bragging to their friends about how well they were treated by you.
And Happy New Year to all you entrepreneurs out there.
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Friday, January 2, 2009
WCR05 - Offering some hope to mothers who despair
It has been said that the hole in a mother’s heart caused by the death of her baby is impossible to heal.
Whether that child was killed by accident or died from disease, it is believed that the pain a woman feels for the loss of the child she carried from conception is incurable.
And in the worst case imaginable, there are the incredible but untold stories of the pain and heartbreak endured by those mothers who choose to abort their unborn children.
What relief is there for all this pain?
One small gesture that has been occurring around the world in recent years has been the establishment of Hope Monuments in scenic gardens that feature an imaginative sculpture that tells the truth that all these mothers are so desperate to hear.
It is a sculpture of Jesus Christ sitting on a bench holding a baby with a mother sitting next to him looking into his kind eyes. And the message is clear – your baby is now in the loving arms of Christ for eternity. And you are forgiven.
The inspiration of this project was pure.
A sidewalk abortion counselor named Mary in Grand Rapids, Michigan, has spent years volunteering her time attempting to talk girls and women into not having abortions as they walked into a clinic.
“When I saw the girls leave after their abortions, they were different people. Their demeanor had changed,” she said.
“For years I wanted to create a place in my town where these mothers could to find forgiveness. I wanted to create a garden that would offer them the hope of Christ, that this was not an unforgivable sin.
“Finally I acquired some property and now I needed someone to create a sculpture that would endure in both summer and winter. It would be a unique place. And it would provide a tangible way in our town where people would begin to talk about this place for post-abortive women.”
She had heard of a wonderful sculptor in Lander, Wyoming, named Beverly Paddleford.
“Mary called me and talked to me about her plan,” Beverly recalls. “I immediately saw Jesus sitting beside this woman holding a baby. Even then I did not realize how much the Lord had in mind for this sculpture.”
She told Mary she could have some drawings to her in about three weeks.
Instead, when she called Mary, she said she had already sculpted a 12-inch clay working piece and she intended to send her some photos of it.
The rest is history.
A year later that life-size monument was sitting in the brand new Garden of Hope in Grand Rapids.
And today there are 19 other Gardens of Hope around the world.
Gardens of Hope have been completed or are in progress in states like Michigan, Alabama, Wyoming, California, Texas, Florida and the country of Romania.
“We began to see there was a big need for this type of sculpture, not just in this country, but around the world.” Beverly says.
The Paddlefords, Beverly and her husband Monte, are devout Christians who own Eagle Bronze, the largest bronze monument foundry west of the Mississippi River.
Works from their foundry are located around the world.
Beverly’s sculptures are also found in locales all across the country.
But their favorite project right now is what they call the Hope Monument.
And although they are not Catholic, they have worked with various Roman Catholic organizations across the country. It is their fervent hope that a great many of the Knights of Columbus Councils will take up the challenge of creating a Garden of Hope in their own communities. They are in the process of forming a foundation where money can be donated to help defray the price of these gardens.
Cost of the monument is modest. Because Beverly is the artist and the Paddlefords own the foundry, it is priced at just $32,000 plus installation, which is about two-thirds what a monument of this size and quality would normally sell for.
“This is a true calling,” Beverly, a mother of four, says. “I have never been involved in any project that tugs at my heart as much as this one does.
“If we can give these poor women the relief they deserve by finding forgiveness for what they thought were their unforgivable acts, I believe it will go a long way toward preventing future abortions.”
For more information, check out their website at: www. Hopemonument.com.
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901 - What do you think 2009 will bring?
Will Wyoming have a winning football season?
Will laws be changed so Gov. Dave can run for a third term?
Will natural gas prices continue to go down, negatively affecting Wyoming’s severance tax revenue?
These and several other predictions came from some of the smart people on my mailing list when I shared with them my visions of 2009 and asked them for theirs.
One of the great seers of our state is former Buffalo mayor and publisher, Jim Hicks. He opines:
“I predict the Wyoming Cowboys will win half their games next season, and the fans will have reason to hope for better things to come. Also see a year of lower coalbed methane prices due to lack of space in pipelines to carry the gas.
“Tourism will be down, but not as much as many fear. The economic recovery will start slowly in 2009, but Wyoming will continue to remain fairly healthy. Gillette will continue to grow and another power plant will be permitted in Campbell County.
“We will see an effort to change term limits by those who would like Governor Dave in charge for another four years. History will show he has been one of the best since Stan Hathaway.
Tucker Fagan, former head of the Wyoming Business Council and now the state director for U. S. Representative-elect Cynthia Lummis, offered up the following:
“Unbiased research will show that Al Gore`s predictions of global warming produced by man are without substance.
“Those who want to protect wild horses will finally see that their well-intentioned efforts are resulting in massive starvation and predation on the population.
“Guantanamo Bay prison will be closed and this will be another well -intentioned effort gone bad when the prisoners are sent to maximum security facilities where they get to see the sun one hour per day.”
State Sen. Bill Landen (R-Casper) predicts the demise of the moose and the elk in the Jackson Hole region:
“I just got back from a trip to Jackson. One thing struck me: no moose. I remember being able to count 40 at a time in the willow flats by the Hatchet Motel.
“In 2009 we will begin to realize the impact that predators like the wolves (and grizzlies) are having. Now, we are passing those losses off as something else but the reality is that the moose would be the first to go (upon re-introduction of the wolf). Elk will be next and it will be dramatic.”
John Gans, director of the National Outdoor Leadership School in Lander, says: “Several colleges will cease due to the drop in endowment revenues, drop in enrollment and decrease in donations. Financial concerns at other institutions will drive greater interest from out of state high school students in the University of Wyoming.
“The financial downturn will dominate headlines for the six months. Credit card default will displace many of the failed mortgage headlines. Wyoming will experience a significant slowdown that will be most obvious during the summer and fall.”
Newcastle publisher Tom Mullen has been tracking Dow Jones averages for years and sees:
“If you track that original line from the early 1900s until 1985 and continue straight through (ignoring the last 20 years) the Dow would be at about 3,000 points today. Or take the 1985 to 1995 inclination and continue straight through, ignoring the last 13 years, we`d be at 6,000 points. My prediction, somewhere between 3,000 and 6,000 points by 2010.”
Retiring lodging exec Marv Brown of Lander says: “Afghanistan may become to Obama, what Iraq has become to Bush. We must remember how we fixed Iraq with attention to civil affairs and nation building as well as combating the enemy directly. We have a terrible time remembering how to correct the mistakes of the past.”
UW Prof Phil Roberts, who wrote from Dubai, where it was 75 degrees, says:
“ The Madoff scandal won`t be the only one. We`ll be seeing another half dozen financial manipulation scandals unfold in the first months. It will pose an even greater challenge for the new administration to re-start the economy.”
My comedian brother Tom in Columbia, S. C. says: “Karl Rove will try to gain sainthood for Dick Cheney not realizing you have to be Catholic for that. Also, the total of registered Democrats in Wyoming will reach 100.” (Tom votes Democrat, by the way.)
Clay James, Jackson, says: “The downturn will continue as our government is not capable of fixing it. It will fix itself over time.”
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