No doubt, this is one of the most interesting (and least diverse) groups of legislators in Wyoming’s 121-year history.

         The facts and the anecdotes associated with this group seemingly would make it one of the most predictable groups in history. Not a lot of diversity and not even any interesting characters. There is no Al Simpson, no John Vinich, no Keith Goodenough, no April Brimmer Kunz and not even any Malcolm Wallop or Mike Enzi anywhere in sight.

         Is this group predictable or what?

         In my 41 years of covering Wyoming lawmakers, I have never seen a group this conservative. Tea Party influence is high but it was already dominant here in Wyoming long before that term came into vogue.

         There are fewer women and fewer Democrats in the Legislature than almost any time since territorial days. And for the first time in eight years, Wyoming has a Republican legislature and a Republican governor. Surely they can get some good laws passed.

         Is it not surprising this group is spending so much time going after teacher tenure? Surprisingly, it lost in the senate this past week despite a $100,000 media blitz by an out-of-state lobbyist group. .

         It was also not a surprise to see lots of time spent on concealed weapon laws (repealing them), preventing illegal Mexican immigrants (they don’t want them) and dealing with gay marriage issues (they are against it).

         Now my comments here may sound critical. But on a personal level, I have a great number of friends in the legislature. Some of them are even my heroes.

         But sometimes sincere individuals seem to perform below their potential when put into a crowd situation.

         And another realization is that there is a reason they are called “legislators.” Because they are expected to legislate, which by one definition is “the art of compromise,” as they write laws and get them passed.

         It is supposed to be assumed that you will never get everything you want. But you end up with the best you can get.

         Making laws is said to be like making sausage. Neither action is very pretty.

         On an individual level, I think most of our legislators are honest and totally dedicated to doing the best job they can. They are often working themselves to exhaustion. If they take umbrage at what I am writing here, it is not my intention to disparage them.

         They are over-worked, under-paid and do not get the support they need to do their jobs.

         They have a difficult job to do in a limited period of time. But they do get help from some circles. 

         Readers of this column know that I am always picking on our poor Wyoming legislative lobbyists. I call them the world’s best because they are surely the most effective lobbyists in the country. Here is why:

         • Usually these lobbyists are the legislators’ best friends. The companies and organizations hiring them know whom to hire and their lobbyists are wonderful people. Heck, some of my best friends are lobbyists, too. This is a tiny state, population-wise, and everybody knows everybody. Truly, the nicest and most-popular people in the state are lobbyists. Think of Dan Sullivan of Casper, for example. One of the best lobbyists in the known universe.

        • Because we are a citizen legislature, our part-time lawmakers are over-worked. Because of this, it is almost impossible for them to obtain impartial information with complete coverage of both sides of about certain issues. The lobbyists with the most money have the most access to the lawmakers and thus, the statistics heard the loudest often are not in the best interest of the people of Wyoming and the future generations of Wyoming. But those are the “facts” that are drilled into the heads of the lawmakers.

        • A third reason is that most legislators are too proud (and probably too frugal) to hire aides to help them out. The Legislative Service Office (LSO) helps a bunch, but not like high quality aides would help. Thus, the top advisors to the lawmakers on these important issues (like severance tax, for example) are those very same lobbyists whose job it is to prevent such laws from passing.

         Thus, do we see the most rigid group of legislators in our state’s history spending 40 days in Cheyenne working arm-in-arm and walking in lockstep with powerful, well-funded lobbyists most of the time?

         As a result of this, are the best laws passed? 

Wyoming citizens have a right to be dubious.

         This is very good news. But what else do I predict for this year?

         A distracted legislative performance, a new governor finding his footing and Wyoming looking like a real oddball compared to other states – this is what 2011 seems to bode for the people of our state.

         Not sure why my annual “predictions” column is so tardy, but it may have been due to some travel distractions and the onset of senility.

         How did my December, 2009, predictions column for 2010 turn out?

         Last time in my predictions column I hinted about the entry into the governor’s race by Sen. Mike Enzi. He did not. 

And that column was dominated by my familiar refrain   about so much coal and natural gas disappearing out of the state without adequate severance taxes attached to these products – well, nothing changes, does it?

         Our legislature seems to be preoccupied with copying Arizona’s illegal immigration law (although we may have the smallest Hispanic population in the country) and spending time on same sex marriage issues. 

         Our world-class energy lobbyists are getting the job done down there in Cheyenne. By stirring up issues like these, important ones like auditing the amounts of coal and gas that is produced in Wyoming or at least looking at how Alaska overhauled its severance tax collection system – well, folks, there just was not enough time. We were busy protecting our state from those dangerous Mexican immigrants and hopeful gay folks.

         The University of Wyoming’s wonderful new energy department has received lots of money from coal, oil and natural gas companies so it is doubtful anyone in Laramie has the courage to look into severance taxes or auditing. Too bad. These are the two biggest issues that confront our state’s economic viability going forward.

         In the past, the few times audits were done on the amounts of coal or natural gas produced in Wyoming, big shortfalls in reporting were often found.

         Our state’s mineral auditing department is understaffed and not properly motivated to do the job they are tasked to do.

         Oh well, it’s just Sniffin whining again. What does he know? Our legislators’ best friends and top advisors on these issues work for the energy companies and they sing a different tune. Surprise.

         So what else is going to happen in 2011?

         Despite the loss of potential revenue from inadequate auditing and tiny severance tax collections, our state will fare very well in the next decade, as we enter another Golden Age. 

I was the first person to predict the last one and will go on record here and say that times are going to be very prosperous in Wyoming in the next ten years.

Here are some other predictions, which offer a mixed bag of good news and bad news:

• Tolls will not be favored and gas taxes will not be increased so the people of Wyoming will continue to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to keep I-80 repaired. Incredible and pathetic, but true.

• Wind is a big deal in Wyoming. Forests of windmills will be built here but the components will be built in Colorado or elsewhere. For some reason we cannot get the infrastructure going here.

• Data centers seem to be the hot button for economic development. Sure hope so. I fear the big Verizon center planned for Laramie will end up in Fort Collins, like   that famous Budweiser brewery that almost came to Wyoming 20 years ago.

• Tourism will continue to do well. But federal money for our national parks may be curtailed.

• Out of state contractors will continue to thrive in Wyoming. Until real reform is done by forcing out of staters to partner with in-state contractors, we will never have the infrastructure we deserve.   The last administration was reluctant to tackle this issue and we support Gov. Matt Mead’s efforts, although they are probably doomed.

• No more coal-fired plants will be built in Wyoming. It will make more sense to ship the coal to China and India than burn it here. Even with coal leaving the country, our legislators will fail to grasp what a tiny effect an increased severance tax would have on coal production. Even small increases would mean millions of dollars of Wyoming citizens and future generations.

         A lot is going on in Wyoming right now. Here are a few of the interesting news stories that caught my attention in recent weeks:

         Thermopolis casino? – There is a lot of talk about the possibility of a new Arapaho casino being built at the north end of Wind River Canyon just outside of Thermopolis.

         Apparently, land has been purchased by the tribe, and the topic has been dominating county commissioner meetings in Hot Springs County.  

         If built, this would be the fifth casino in Wyoming and the first one outside of Fremont County.

         Wyoming press – Gov. Matt Mead presented himself very well during a recent press conference with members of the Wyoming Press Association at that group’s annual conference in Cheyenne.

         Mead did a nice job during his speech in covering his favorite topics.

         When I asked him about increasing severance taxes, he replied, “I am more worried about what we are doing with the money we are collecting rather than worrying about where it is coming from.”

         It was the wrong answer. But with enough encouragement from his constituents, perhaps he will soon change his mind. Hope it is sooner rather than later.

         Astronaut in Wyoming - The recovering U. S. Rep Gabby Giffords of Tucson has been in the news a lot in the past three weeks.

         On a local level, her husband, the astronaut Mark Kelly, has been in Wyoming a lot over the years. He has attended three National Outdoor Leadership School courses in Lander. He and his twin brother Scott (also an astronaut) both have spent lots of time in the Wind River Mountains.

         It is expected that Mark Kelly will take off on the shuttle mission scheduled in April and will meet with his brother on the International Space Station, where Scott is now. It will be the first time that twins have been together in space. 

Pardon Butch? Over in Buffalo, my friend Jim Hicks quotes local columnist Sagebrush Sven as pushing for our new governor to pardon famed Wyoming bank robbers Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.

         Sven’s column has been appearing in the Buffalo Bulletin for decades and here is the most recent entry:

 “But for whatever the reason, the Bench Sitters appear to have too much time on their hands.They have started an effort to obtain pardons for George Leroy Parker (Butch Cassidy) and Harry Longabaugh (the Sundance Kid).These two may have robbed a few trains, stole some cattle and horses, robbed a bank or two and possibly enjoyed the company of Buffalo’s Ladies on Laurel Avenue in their younger days. But neither was ever convicted of murder.

“The Bench Sitters believe Butch and Sundance have made a great contribution to the development of tourism in Wyoming.That may not have been their original intention, but it sure worked out that way.

“Thanks to a movie made 42 years ago (and still being shown regularly on television), we doubt there are more than two out of every 100 people living in this country who don’t know the story of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.

“According to some questionable mathematics worked out this week by the Bench Sitters, it is estimated Butch and Sundance are responsible for generating an average of over $12 million in tourism revenue every year since their movie came out.

“That would be more than a half billion dollars in business. The Bench Sitters claim this generated well over $200 million in sales tax for the state during those years.Perhaps they need a monument as well as a pardon. The Hole-in-the-Wall Gang has turned out to be almost as good as the livestock industry for the state coffers.”

         Horrible statistics - Casper Ski Area Hogadon saw a horrific event recently that had not been duplicated even in huge ski areas.

         An out-of-control snow boarder going an estimated 50 mph down an ice-packed expert slope slammed into a young mother who was standing in the middle of the run with her five-year old daughter. 

         The incredible force of the crash killed the snow boarder, 23-year old Craig Shirley, and the five-year old girl, Elise Johnson. The statistics around the crash are amazing

         After the collision the mother, Kelli Johnson, who is still hospitalized in Denver, ended up 66 feet away from the point of impact.

         The little girl was found 95 feet away. 

The snowboarder ended up 178 feet away from the point of impact. That is more than half the length of a football field.

         As a Wyoming political junkie, it was hard to be gone from the state in early January during the inauguration of new governor Matt Mead.

         We spent Christmas and New Year’s in Harlan, Iowa, because my mother-in -law, a wonderful gal named Viola Musich, was ill.

         So, much of this column will be my views written from a distance during that time.

         Our travels involved 3,000 miles across eight states but Wyoming was always on my mind.

         Here are some highlights:

         • We spent most of our time in Iowa and Texas, two of the states most involved in wind energy. Iowa has the largest percentage of its energy produced by wind (15%) and Texas has more wind turbines than any other state.

         These whirling giants were ubiquitous. 

         Here in Wyoming, we have been admiring that big wind farm off I-80 near Arlington for almost 10 years. But those turbines are dwarfs compared to the behemoths being built in the modern era.

         Many of the new 28-story high turbines are more than one megawatt per turbine. When the wind is blowing, it will power 500 homes. That is a lot of power, folks.

         Reportedly, some Iowa farmers are making more than $150,000 per year for hosting turbines. 

         Probably the same thing is happening here in Wyoming, too.

         • Note to the legislature and Gov. Mead: we paid a $6 toll for the privilege of driving I-35 from Emporia to Wichita, Kansas. 

         Tolls on Interstate highways make a lot of sense to me. National truckers should be paying some kind of maintenance fee in the form of a toll on I-80 here in Wyoming.

         During our trip, we traveled I-70 across Kansas and Colorado – it is absolutely not an alternative route for the national truckers who now use I-80. They will pay the tolls here. They have nowhere else to go.

         Legislators should not be so wary of charging tolls to pay for damages caused to I-80 by all these huge trucks. Creative leaders can figure out a way to protect Wyoming folks who are not using I-80 and who, definitely, are not wrecking that highway.

         I would bet that 99 percent of the damage to I-80 in Wyoming is caused by big semi trailer trucks from out of state that are merely passing through because there is no other alternative route.

         • Weather this time of year can be so crazy.

         We left Wyoming Dec. 22 and going east, had to avoid I-80 because it was closed from wind and snow. 

         Arrived to Iowa and saw the temperature dip from 62 degrees to 32 degrees in an hour on New Year’s Eve.  The next day, it was bitter with high winds generating a –24 wind chill factor.

         • Trying to avoid the flu in the winter is almost a losing battle.

         One day when we were in Iowa, my wife and two of her sisters took Viola to the hospital for a blood draw. Soon, all had the flu.

         Pretty soon eight members of the extended families had caught it.

         Viola even caught it. But she recovered the next day, but there literally were no family members left to take care of her. 

         We had earlier decided to get the heck out of there. We decided to make our mad dash to Dallas. We drove it straight through because I assumed if I got sick, then we would be stranded there for a day or two.

         Never got sick. Got lucky.

         It would seem that a healthy person ought to avoid going to doctors’ offices and hospitals if you want to avoid getting sick.

         The temperatures in Texas were in the 70s. One day, I was wearing a tee shirt with the A/C on. “Is it always this nice in Dallas in January?” I asked my daughter Amber.

         “Just wait, “ she said, prophetically.

         With snow and cold predicted for Wyoming on Jan. 9, we dashed out of there and got home at 9 p.m. on Jan. 8 to see the moon and stars out. Maybe we hustled out of there in vain?

         Nope. Snowed hard later that night and then got bitter cold. It sure was great to be home.

         How was Dallas on Jan. 9? 

They endured a small blizzard as Amber emailed me photos of the kids playing outside in the snow banks. Looked just like Wyoming. No tee shirts there on that day.

         The time is long overdue for Wyoming lawmakers to consider changing the way it charges severance taxes on minerals produced here and sent out of state or overseas.

         Reason for this is the impending surge in prices as coal soon becomes an international commodity shipped to countries like China and India.

         Despite a black eye here in the USA due to its polluting capability, coal is in high demand all over the world, especially in growing economies.

         It could be predicted that the biggest future opportunity for Wyoming coal is for it to be shipped out of Pacific ports to countries that are running out of locally produced coal.

         Back here in Wyoming, coal severance taxes have not been raised in decades. 

         Gov. Matt Mead and the newly convened Legislators should at least look at what former Gov. Sarah Palin did in Alaska, in modifying that state’s severance tax rates.

         My understanding is that the Alaska system involves indexing rates, which is what Wyoming should consider. As coal prices rise, so should the severance tax rate. As prices go down, so should the rate. This is fair and market-driven. With an outlook this promising, Wyoming citizens and the future generations of Wyomingites will benefit greatly.

         In Wyoming, coal is a very big deal. Our state is the largest coal-producing region in North America and supplied 40 percent of the coal used in the USA. Some 13 mines in Campbell County’s Powder River Basin generated 97 percent of this production.

         My friend Jeff Wacker, the futurist for HP from Dallas tipped me off to this impending worldwide coal boom. Also, a well-written story in WyoFile.com by Dustin Bleizeffer provided quality information.

There are two huge international reasons to look at raising coal severance taxes right now. Both of these reasons are causing the prices for coal to rise and the demand to soar worldwide.

         First is the rapid growth of economies in China and India. 

         China is building a new coal-fired electrical power plant weekly. Right now, that country imports some 60 percent of all the coal produced in Australia. Recently coal prices increased by 40 percent in that country.

Even though China mines a lot of its own coal, it cannot provide enough to satisfy its needs for the power plants and for its vast steel making facilities.

China’s economy is expected to grow four times as fast as the USA in 2011 and its demand for more coal is unrelenting.

India’s economy is also growing rapidly and relies on coal for both electrical power and for steel making. At one point in 2010, 17 coal-fired plants in India were down to a seven-day supply of coal on-hand, which is considered a huge security risk for that country.

More than 75 percent of India’s coal is imported from Indonesia. Its importing of coal from South Africa increased by 75 percent this past year.

Second reason is a series of catastrophes in the world that are causing a shortage of coal.

Australia has been battered by floods that have negatively affected two-thirds of its coal mining capacity. It will take time to restore the mines and the ports that were damaged by record rains and storms.

In Russia, a horrible accident killed over 60 people in one of the country’s largest coalmines.

It will cost $200 million and years to bring that mine back onto production. Russia was a net coal exporter before the accident but now is expected to possibly need to import coal. 

With the above scenarios, we now see state leaders from Montana meeting with Pacific states about expanding ocean ports so more coal shipments could be made to those far-off countries. Wyoming industry folks are also in the thick of these discussions.

Meanwhile, here we are, back in a windy corner of Wyoming, watching our legislators and our world-best lobbyists starting to mingle and settling in for a 40-day period of law making.

Should severance tax reform be on the table?

For years our lobbyists have managed to convince our legislators and our governors to leave this golden goose alone.

“If it is not broken, why fix it?” is the oft-heard refrain by lobbyists and lawmakers, alike.

Well, we are not saying it is broken. In fact our severance tax system is the envy of every other state, except Alaska.

But well-meaning and good-intentioned leaders need to take a long, hard look at this system soon. Today is not soon enough.

         Oh no. It’s that dreaded time of year again, when we really get serious about diets.

I have been on a diet almost constantly for 30 years. During these 30 years, it would be fair to say that I have lost the same ten pounds over 1,000 times. Thus, the term “the ten thousand pound man.”

         Most experts call this yo-yo dieting. We gain some weight and then we go on some kind of diet. We lose those first ten pounds. It makes us feel good and we let our guards down and, pretty soon we’ve gained it back.

         I am using this column as a public pep talk in the hope that this time, things should be different.

         We try Atkins. We try South Beach. We try Weight Watchers. We try Nutrisystem. The Atkins diet has appeal because of my love for meat, cheese and nuts. Then my gout flares up.

         Ouch. Gout is not fun. And being fat is not fun, either.

Like the famous movie title, this is “no country for (fat) old men.” A friend shared with me a rather scary observation he made on the beaches of Cabo San Lucas.

         “There are no fat men there,” he says. When he looked at all those older men spending their retirement times, he just did not see any fatties. Like me?

         His words struck a chord.

         I always thought heavy people could live to an old age. My dad was a big guy and he died at 81. His last years were not so hot, but his mind was active. Come to think of it, the quality of his physical existence was not so great.

         And while looking at my old folks acquaintances, there is no question that my friend’s observation carries a lot of truth. Now my friend is a wonderful specimen of health. I sincerely hope he lives a long, happy life as a skinny old guy.

         But enough about him. This column is about me.

         Just take a visit to a senior citizens center and take a count. There are dozens of older women for each man. And although many of the women are heavy, the surviving men are not. 

         Not sure why this has occurred. No question that (heavy) men simply do not live as long as women.

         Not long ago, I told my wife that I am happier now than any time in my life. But the thought that I may not be around in the next decade or so, is probably the single driving force behind taking control of my life and making the necessary changes.

         Not sure why we have all this fat on many of us, but I know where my stockiness comes from: Neanderthals.

         Even though scientists say early humans and early Neanderthals never mated, when I look at myself in the mirror and, well, that is a pretty stocky guy looking back at me.

         Here is another theory, also based on genetics.

         One time at the ocean port city of Brighton, England, I was struck by how “at home” I felt sitting on a dock. The air was full of the aroma of fish and ocean spray. The sky was gray and the ocean was gray, too.

         To me, it felt like home.

         My ancestors probably were not really Neanderthals. They were stocky fisherman of Celtic descent who lived in either Ireland or Wales. They lived on bread, potatoes, fish and beer. They did not have long legs or arms and their trunks were stocky. Just like me. This body type was perfect for hanging out on boats enduring cold, damp air under overcast skies. These folks were used to being chilly and that natural body fat kept them warm.

         So here I am, many generations later, living in a body that is not at all designed for my current life.

         And what can I do about it?

         The winner for Best Picture of the Year in 2007 was titled No Country For Old Men. In that movie, Tommie Lee Jones sort of gave up. As a Sheriff, he had lived a vigorous life but in the end, he was just sort of used up.

         Is this what happens to men?

         I fear it may be what happens to older, overweight men, anyway.

         So hopefully the next 10 pounds (and many more) of that 10,000 pounds will be the last ones that I need to lose to get myself into shape in 2011.