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Everything’s the same, back in my little town.
– Simon and Garfunkel song
Why does Wyoming lack a small city of significant population?
This thought first occurred to me while traveling through Boise a few years ago. Most recently, while visiting Anchorage, with its 300,000 people, this question again came into my mind.
Our largest cities, Casper and Cheyenne, are wonderful places. Both were similar in size to Anchorage and Boise 50 years ago. Not so today.
It might be easy to conclude that there were unique things that contributed to the growth of Anchorage and Boise. But what? And why? They are isolated places in frontier-like states just like Wyoming.
One thing I noticed about both places is the obvious signs that big corporations are based there. Years ago, big oil companies had a large presence in Casper and a big airline had its headquarters in Cheyenne. But they moved on.
Anchorage grew because of the energy explosion in that state. But has not Wyoming seen the exact same thing here over the past 50 years?
It is also significant to note the difference in the ages of the populations of Alaska and Wyoming. While we are among the oldest in average age, Alaska is perhaps the youngest.
Today Casper and Cheyenne are both 55,000-plus while Anchorage tops a quarter of a million and Boise tops 200,000.
Before going farther, I admit that I love our small population and am not yearning for big increases. But it seems odd that somehow Wyoming has avoided developing that one major-sized city that would be an economic incubator for the state.
The statistics of some other neighboring small cities are even more interesting.
In 1961, Fort Collins was a tiny little city, as was Rapid City. Today, they are 143,986 and 67,956.
Greeley was just 26,251 back in 1961. Today its population is 92,889.
Idaho’s growth of its small cities makes no sense. In 1961, Boise was just 34,378, smaller than both Casper and Cheyenne. Today it is 205,671. Idaho Falls went from 33,095 to 56,813 today. Pocatello went from 28,195 to 54,255.
Over 50 years, the growth of Casper from 38,665 to 55,316 and Cheyenne’s growth from 43,380 to 59,456 are quite respectable. But neither showed the explosive growth of these other regional cities. Billings, for example, doubled from 52,249 to 104,170.
Wyoming leaders commented on this situation:
Several blamed weather for lack of growth in our two largest cities. Steve Mossbrook, CEO of Wyoming.com in Riverton said: “In both Wyoming cities the wind blows all the time, frequently so hard as to make it uncomfortable to be out of doors. Additionally, Wyoming people are not exactly fond of change. ”
Randy Bruns, who heads up LEADS economic efforts in Cheyenne, replied: “Anchorage, Ft Collins and Boise all are university towns and they all invested heavily in quality of life amenities two decades or more before Casper and Cheyenne started to wake up. Communities that invest in themselves become attractive to others. In Wyoming we thought things were good enough, thank you very much.”
Jared Kail of Lander talks about “critical mass” as necessary for a larger city to grow to that level. “It requires a seed of population initially large enough to sustain itself economically through plenty of access to capital and a stable and skilled workforce.
“Once that critical mass is achieved, it behooves companies to relocate from elsewhere enough businesses have stabilized to provide wealth in terms of investments and there are enough employees skilled in a given industry to make a steady stream of valued employment cheap enough to keep profit margins in check.
“Outlook? I see Cheyenne on the cusp of hitting critical mass. I think we are seeing a type of industry forcing happening both by virtue of its strategic importance at the intersection of two major US interstates, and through a (governmental sponsored) high-tech trend growth via NCAR. I think we could see Wyoming`s first major city emerge. Which is, of course, yet another reason why I love living in Lander,” Kail concluded.
My personal theory is that both Cheyenne and Casper do have weather considerations that come into play. But the biggest reason for the lack of a major growth is the 20-year bust that Wyoming endured from 1982 to 2002. Wyoming truly languished during this bleak period with a “make do, get by” attitude.
That, and the lack of a four-year university in either city.
What do you think?
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