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Election thoughts:
• Tuesday’s presidential election sure feels similar to another one back in 1980.
That election featured a weakened Democrat incumbent Jimmy Carter being contested by an aggressive Republican Ronald Reagan. And yes, turmoil in the Mideast was rampant and the economy at home was flat.
Polls had the candidates close on election eve with Reagan slightly ahead. It ended up a near-landslide for Reagan.
Self-described casino odds maker Wayne Root recently recalled that earlier election when he predicted a similar result for 2012.
“On election day Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter. Understanding history, I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory,” he says.
“So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge? First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. Many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now - and that is a bad harbinger,” he concludes.
Not sure if this fella could be right but what he writes adds an interesting insight to the race.
University of Wyoming Historian Phil Roberts sees it differently. He says patrician, East-coast-types like Tom Dewey, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and now Mitt Romney all lose when regular-type folks make that final decision in the voting booth.
• We were recently in Colorado spending time with our grandchildren. Watching TV was true political over-kill. With that state viewed as a “swing state,” millions of dollars of TV ads for both Obama and Romney are dominating the television screens at night. The ads were non-stop, vicious and over-the-top.
Their home phone rang three times during the TV airing of the third Presidential debate. These folks were all urging my daughter’s family to vote for their candidate.
• An interesting ballot measure in Colorado is to allow individuals to legally possess one ounce of marijuana. The state already has 104,000 “legal” users of medicinal marijuana.
I guess the rest of the population wants to use it, too. Interesting how that will turn out.
• Back here in Wyoming, we will probably see our state voting more overwhelmingly Republican than any other state. Hanging out at the coffee groups and listening to the spirited conversations in the bars reveals our state as the GOP dominated place that it is.
But what about the rest of the country?
The president did a wonderful job four years ago in winning votes from Catholics and young people. These two groups are not nearly as enthusiastic for Obama as in 2008.
Catholics continue to endure an assault on their values and even the ability of the church’s institutions to abide by core beliefs. Obama’s total support of abortion (even third trimester) and his administration ‘s insistence that Catholic institutions pay for employees’ contraception expenses will have a small but significant effect at the ballot box.
And those young folks who voted for Obama in overwhelming numbers four years ago? Across the USA, this group has been hit hardest by the lack of good jobs available. Almost half of college graduates have moved back home with their parents.
Not likely Obama voters this time around, it would seem to me.
• I hope everyone votes on Tuesday. Here is my favorite election joke:
Three decades ago, there was a wild and crazy governor of Louisiana named Edwin Edwards who was a good friend of Wyoming’s Gov. Ed Herschler. Edwards told the following “un-true” story on his friend at the Lander One Shot Antelope Hunt Banquet:
According to his tale, Herschler went down to Louisiana to assist Edwards in a reelection campaign.
The story goes, they were out in the cemetery writing down names off tombstones of folks that Edwards needed to cast votes for him.
After a couple of hours of writing down names, they were about half done, when it started to rain.
“Hell, Ed, let’s call it a night,” Gov. Edwards recalled saying to Herschler.
Edwards said Herschler replied: “Well, governor, I am not sure how you do things down here in Louisiana. But up in Wyoming, where I am from, we are known as the Equality State. And, by gosh, the folks in this end of the cemetery have every bit as much a right to vote as the folks over in your section!”
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