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Saturday, February 13, 2010
2010 - 08 Is House Speaker Colin Simpson the front runner?
Watching State Rep. Colin Simpson (R-Cody) in the Wyoming Legislature makes it easy to label him the presumptive front-runner in the Republican governor primary.
Of the four GOP candidates, he is the only one to not officially announce. He has formed his committee, even ran one Internet ad and is keeping everyone informed about “an important announcement” when the session ends.
If he can gather enough allies of his dad (former U. S. Sen. Al Simpson), plus his own statewide constituency, which he has built during 12 years in the Legislature, he will hit the ground running when he announces.
His biggest challenge is being an effective Speaker of the House while courting supporters. Especially now during trying economic times.
Wyoming deserves a strong and impartial leader in the House. This is arguably the second most powerful elected post in the state and if mishandled, well, the people of Wyoming will pay dearly for those omissions. And they voters will make him pay, too.
We watched two other Speakers in recent times try to do this juggling act. Both Eli Bebout (2000) and Fred Parady (2004) struggled with the perception that they were trying to please too many people because of their future political ambitions. This is not a knock on either man, but rather a reminder of the conflicts they faced with perceptions.
And now Rep. Simpson finds himself wearing the same two hats – Speaker and candidate.
But the biggest cat-and-mouse game being played in Wyoming politics continues to be Gov. Dave Freudenthal’s flirtation with going after a third term. He looks unbeatable if he chooses to run.
As much as he really would like to run, he is straddling the horns of a dilemma. His family does not want him to run. But he still sees important work to do. What does he do?
So, here we have Colin and Dave, the two most powerful politicians in the state, playing coy as the weeks roll by toward the May filing and the August primary.
Campaign season can seem really short for newcomers as they seek donors and build name recognition. Meanwhile, these two guys are on the front page of the state’s big papers almost every day.
While in Cheyenne recently, I was staying at the Plains Hotel and ended up parking two blocks away. My car was next to a GMC Denali with a bashed front end and a “Mead for Governor” sticker on the side.
The car was parked in front of candidate Matt Mead’s headquarters. He and his wife Carol bought a wonderful old building on Lincolnway and remodeled it and, on this day, seven employees and/or volunteers staffed it.
Is he a serious candidate? Stop by his headquarters. Yes, indeed, this guy is very, very serious.
Can he get traction, as someone who has never run for office before? His middle name of Hansen (like the late Cliff, his grandfather) sure won’t hurt.
He views his youth at 47 as an asset and says of the last seven governors, just two served in the Legislature (Ed Herschler and Jim Geringer). He says this proves his lack of previous elective office is not a detriment.
His task and that of the three other GOP candidates (State Auditor Rita Meyer, Ron Micheli and Rep. Simpson) will be to collect my guess of 27,451 votes to win a four-person primary this wide-open. If Gov. Dave does not run, whoever wins that Republican primary will probably be our next governor.
Although Mr. Mead and Mr. Micheli, Fort Bridger, probably have access to the most money, this will not solely determine the winner. What will determine it will be how hard and smart they work and how smart they spend their money.
This is the first campaign in Wyoming history to involve Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, Pitchengine, etc.) and that could make a critical difference.
Right now, I would handicap the GOP primary race as follows:
Colin Simpson – 27 percent
Ron Micheli – 26 percent
Rita Meyer – 24 percent
Matt Mead – 23 percent
Obviously, you can change those totals around any way you want because it is way too close to call, at this time.
These are times when candidates are running all over Wyoming, lining up support and speaking to groups. Sometimes it can be a dangerous business, as Mr. Mead found out, when he killed a deer while smashing his Denali late one night up by Worland.
Stay tuned . . .
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