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Friday, August 13, 2010
033 - GOP governor primary coming in at a dead heat
Drum roll, please.
Here are the results of my informal polls and the conclusions drawn from conversations with knowledgeable Wyoming people concerning Tuesday’s primary election for the Republican nomination for governor.
• A high up government official who does not want his name mentioned said State Auditor Rita Meyer will win. Because: “Rita and perhaps (former U. S. Attorney) Matt Mead will tend to govern if elected more like current Gov. Dave Freudenthal and former Gov. Mike Sullivan by appointing people, regardless of party, who can manage the various facets of state government. “
• My coffee group, also known as the Fox News All Stars, seems to also have a heavy tilt toward Meyer. I find this surprising because she does not come across as the most conservative candidate, which would normally reflect this crew.
One of these conservatives (Garve Chapman) says: “Rita will be the winner. Her military background will be a factor to a lot of people, especially males. She has a good personality and is not considered a politician.”
• A devoted follower of House Speaker Colin Simpson, Cody, says he’s concerned former Ag Commissioner Ron Micheli, Fort Bridger, will be the pick because of intense loyalty among the Micheli followers:
“This is the year of the Tea Party of anti-politician, anti-insider, anti-anything-status-quo. From conservative Fox TV News pundits to liberal AP response boards throughout Facebook, candidates that represent a break from politics-as-usual are garnering tons of attention.
“Ron has minimized his lack of experience by capitalizing on the Tea Party momentum, and maximizing it using Wyoming vs. The Feds rhetoric.”
This person sees 2010 a repeat of that historically close 1974 primary when the most conservative candidate (Dick Jones) defeated three other moderate Republicans (Roy Peck, Malcolm Wallop and Bud Brimmer).
My conservative friend Rick Wall of Cheyenne also sees Micheli as the leader. He predicts Micheli, Mead, Meyer and Simpson in that order.
• Polls, polls, polls. Readers love them. Candidates hate them (unless they are ahead).
A Cheyenne Tribune-Eagle poll reflects my personal belief that this is nearly a four-way dead heat. It showed Meyer (23%), Micheli (20%), Mead 18%) and Simpson (10%). Some 29% were undecided or for some lesser-known candidates.
A Casper Star-Tribune poll had Meyer (27%) and Mead (24%) out in front of Simpson (17%) and Micheli (12%).
Mead released his own poll which showed him leading with 26% compared to Meyer’s 22%. Micheli had 16% and Simpson 12%.
Hmmm.
Mead’s campaign has surprised me. His youth has helped him as he has pounded the streets and highways plus spent a ton of money. He got favorable press from the Star Tribune editorial board and even secured the endorsement of the Cheyenne WTE.
• I always considered House Speaker Simpson the front-runner in this campaign but now am not so sure.
Simpson last week sent out an email telling his followers to not worry about his lagging polling numbers because his campaign staff purposely chose to be late getting his TV ads out.
His recent ads talk about his “governing” ability, but they may be too late. Not sure who is watching TV during this time of camping, fishing, county fairs and vacations.
Former House Speaker Fred Parady says: “Simpson has the deepest resume for governing and widespread name recognition, so I think he will pull through. In real estate, it`s location, location, location. In politics, its name recognition, first and foremost.”
UW Historian and political expert Phil Roberts sees hope for Simpson: “I`d say that the outcome likely will be different if independents come out and register as Republicans. If they do in significant numbers, Simpson to be the main beneficiary.”
• Another UW professor (and former journalist, hence an instant expert) Ken Smith says: “I view this race as so tight that all four candidates will be within five percentage points of each other. Since I view this as a close race, Meyer has quietly gathered the support that will allow her to win. If I`m wrong, and the voters come out strongly for one candidate over the others, that candidate will be Micheli.”
So, with the above comments plus a ton of other info from all the other instant experts across the state that I know, here is my not-so-bold prediction for Tuesday’s GOP governor primary.
What this really means is that this race is a dead heat where any of these four could win: Meyer 26%, Micheli 25%, Mead 24%, Simpson 23%, others 2%.
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