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149 - Predictions for Wyoming, looking ahead to 2012

         My goal is to spend a lot more time on a lot fewer things. – Tom Brokaw.

 

         Okay, although I may want to slow down a little now that I have reached retirement age, what is the outlook going forward for the great state of Wyoming?

         As one of the rare states that has seen its economy grow and its unemployment rate remain low, Wyoming has enjoyed prosperity rarely seen across our great land.

         While looking into my crystal ball, the image I see offers up a cloudy view, indeed. It is harder to predict our future right now than any time in the past several decades.

         The reasons it is so hard to make these predictions are local, state and national concerns.

         Locally here in Lander, job growth continues to be thwarted by infrastructure problems, primarily the lack of affordable housing.

        Wyoming, statistically, is among the leaders in the country in job growth and population growth, per capita, but we still lag in key areas.

         When out-of-state workers come to Wyoming and do their work and then go home, it continues to foster the colony-mentality of our state.

         Our biggest industries are energy-related followed by the impressive tourism industry and by the agriculture sector. Our fledgling manufacturing sector is being impacted by the national economic downtown and employee recruitment problems.

         But there are success stories aplenty, as reported at the Wyoming Business Alliance forum in Cheyenne last month.

Readers of this column have read the term “Wyoming’s recession-proof economy” many times, which was written with the belief that the country’s energy demand will continue to grow. 

This appears to still be true but the pace may slow for a few years. The country may be saved from the impending electric blackouts and brownouts for a year and two because the economy is flat and growth is stagnant.

Demand for power ultimately will continue to grow but the ability to supply it is on hold due to cancellation of so many proposed coal-fired power plants.

         Coal continues to be nation’s bad boy when it comes to pollution, which is unfair. The Environmental Protection Agency recently bowed out from canceling coal plant construction, leaving licensing decisions to the states.

       It would be nice if the Legislature would show some vision to help out their constituents when it comes to lowering prices for energy within our borders.

       Best way would be to launch some public-private partnerships between the state and private business to building some power plants or to develop natural gas on state lands. One businessman wrote me that his natural gas bill was up a bunch this winter, and this weather has been pretty mild.

       Despite some constitutional issues, such a program could be difficult to implement and the energy lobbyists will go nuts – but the citizens would totally support such a program.

       The biggest problem with our state’s economic growth will be finding the answer to this simple question: where are the workers going to come from?

       We will see record numbers of teachers and state employees retiring. Who will take their places?

       Perhaps a partial answer to this problem will be an invasion of baby boomer/vigorous retirees who will move here to take advantage of our low tax rates and quality of life.

       These newcomers will also contribute to our new title as the oldest state in the union when it comes to average age of its citizens.

       So, now let’s go out on a limb. With my eyes closed and my fingers crossed, here are some predictions for 2012:      

       First, we are seeing an unusual population boom with extra kindergarten classes being added in both Rock Springs and Lander. The prevailing thinking is that we are getting older, as a state, not younger. This is a good trend, by the way.

       Second, the state will continue to be swimming in severance tax money. Wyoming people are the Arabs of America. We will have billions of dollars to spend for years to come. But we could double our severance taxes and it would not make a particle of difference to the industries. It would make a huge difference to Wyoming.

       Third, as we pour mountains of money into education, some leaders are bemoaning that the money going into K-12 education just helps educate future workers who leave Wyoming as soon as they graduate. Instead, these folks think more money should go to community colleges, whose students are 90 percent in-state residents. Interesting.

         Happy holidays and thanks for reading.