Friday, June 13, 2008
824 - The race for the House
It is expected that the last 60 days of this year’s GOP primary race for the U. S. House will be a lot more exciting that the first six months have been.
That is the conventional wisdom of the people I have contacted around the state in the past week about this race.
Former State Treasurer and legislator Cynthia Lummis of Cheyenne appears to have the best name recognition as she competes against newcomer Mark Gordon of Buffalo and second time candidate, Bill Winney of Bondurant.
Perhaps the biggest result of my survey was that so few people are even paying attention to the race.
Republicans Ms. Lummis, Mr. Gordon and Mr. Winney are all trying to succeed the retiring Barbara Cubin as Wyoming’s lone U. S. Representative. The primary is Aug. 19 and these candidates have about two months to get their messages across to voters.
A fourth candidate is Michael Holland, Green River, who most feel will not be a factor.
In this race, getting through the GOP primary used to ensure an automatic general election victory but not so this year.
Teton County Democrat Gary Trauner came within an eyelash of defeating Mrs. Cubin two years ago and he is well positioned to win the general election this time. He has more than a half million dollars raised and is a viable candidate.
Interestingly, a number of my contacts felt that Mark Gordon would be the tougher candidate for Mr. Trauner to beat in the general than either Ms. Lummis or Mr. Winney.
The common thread that ran through their responses was that Mr. Gordon would appeal to both moderate and conservative Republicans in the general while the other two might be limited to conservative Republican voters.
The immediate concern of these GOP candidates, though, is how to win the upcoming primary.
It appears that Ms Lummis is campaigning the old-fashioned way. She is well known among the party faithful and she has been working the county meetings and building on past relationships. The Cheyenne rancher-lawyer gal had a big head start when this race started.
Rancher Mark Gordon (no connection to Gordon Gin, by the way) has spent serious money to increase his name recognition while Mr. Winney no doubt figures he already has good visibility since he was a candidate two years ago.
My survey resulted in some complimentary comments about candidates
“The people around here who know Mark Gordon value him for his independent thinking on a lot of issues,” says Jim Hicks of Buffalo. “Johnson County has always been regarded as a Republican stronghold but Dave Freudenthal carried it by better than a 60 percent margin. A lot of the GOP gray beards like Mark because he is intelligent and able to discuss a wide range of issues.”
Here in Lander, outfitter and former legislator Jim Allen heaped praised on Cynthia Lummis:
“Cynthia has a remarkable background and has many noted accomplishments, including 14 years in the Legislature, a Juris Doctorate from UW and eight years as State Treasurer. All the other candidates fall short when measured against her.”
One educator told me that she had been hearing more about Mr. Winney than either of the other two.
The former naval officer has been working hard and spending money. His name recognition is not on par with Ms Lummis and his bank account is not in the same league as Mr. Gordon. A candidate who touts his military experience, people need to recall that Mr. Winney garnered 33,000 votes in this primary two years ago.
Two opinions that came out of my survey asked to be anonymous.
“Mr. Trauner is an opportunist who cannot win,” said a Cheyenne businessman, who supports Gordon in the primary.
And then there is the couple in Jackson where the husband says he is voting for Ms. Lummis and the wife totally supports Mr. Trauner. Both think Mr. Trauner will prevail in the general, however.
Political expert Phil Roberts of Laramie points out that both Ms Lummis and Mr. Trauner face the problem of coming from extreme ends of the state.
He notes her “Cheyenne connection” could actually be a disadvantage as could be Mr. Trauner’s Jackson Hole address.
At this time, it could be concluded that Cynthia is leading for now but Mr. Gordon is not out of it yet and Mr. Winney is running hard. Two months can be a lifetime in a political campaign.
Once through the primary, the general could be a real free-for-all. And the guaranteed winners of that should be the voters of Wyoming.
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