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Saturday, August 16, 2008
833 - Longing for leadership in U. S. House for Wyoming
Ah, for the days of Teno Roncalio and Dick Cheney.
It’s with that longing that this writer ponders the current Republican race for U. S. Congress for Wyoming.
After an eternity of embarrassing representation by outgoing Rep. Barbara Cubin, preceded by a quick stint by the late, great Craig Thomas, well, this seat has not been a beacon of hope for the people of Wyoming for a long, long time.
Back when this was a two-party state, Democrat Teno was a force for Wyoming in the 1970s. Was that about a 100 years ago or what?
Vice President Cheney was a major player on the national scene when he held the seat, winning six two-year terms. He succeeded Rep. Roncalio in 1978.
Most recently we have had 13 years of mediocre to non-existent representation by Mrs. Cubin since Jan. 3, 1995. In a few days, Republicans will vote for her likely successor as Wyoming’s lone Representative.
Most observers feel it is a horse race between veteran Cynthia Lummis and big spending newcomer Mark Gordon. Canny observers refuse to discount Bill Winney who gathered in 33,000 primary votes two years ago against Babs.
Winning this primary is not a lock for the seat, but tradition holds that Democrat candidate Gary Trauner, despite nearly a million dollars raised, will have an uphill battle against the GOP winner.
Cynthia has the endorsement of pro-gun and pro-life folks. Yet, Wyoming’s most conservative Catholic writer, attorney Richard Wall Jr., blasted her pro-life record in a recent column in the Wyoming Tribune Eagle. If Mr. Wall’s sentiments get statewide play, it could give the pro-life Mr. Winney a boost.
Other critics fear her election is Cubin 2.0, which is exemplified by reports of the roles played in her campaign by Bill Cubin and Drake Hill.
My polling group of 60 surmised there are two positive consequences of Mr. Gordon spending hundreds of thousands of dollars:
First, they think he would have an easier time beating Mr. Trauner in the general than Cynthia or Bill Winney.
Second, if elected in the general, they think he will accomplish more in Congress because he could work better with Democrats than Ms. Lummis. This is based on the assumption that when the November totals are tallied, America will have a Democrat congress and president.
My respondents offered results that were often dissimilar. But trends did develop.
Lummis supporter Dave Raynolds of Lander said, “Mark Gordon is somewhat like Gary Trauner - a hope that bucks can translate into votes.”
A friend of Mr. Gordon’s who is supporting Ms. Lummis said this: “At issue is the huge amount of money he has donated to his own campaign (over $650,000) . . . seems a little offensive to many.”
The Cheyenne Tribune-Eagle endorsed Mr. Gordon, somewhat of a shock considering Ms. Lummis lives in Cheyenne.
In Worland, Northern Wyoming Daily News Managing Editor Bob Vines says: “You mean someone’s running against Gordon? I truly think he will win, though. Lummis and Perot (er—Winney) will split the vote in the higher populated areas while Gordon will win the rest of the state.”
Is it possible that even the conservative Republicans who vote in primaries might have turned a little green? One Gordon supporter said: “I’ve waited a long time for a Republican who actually cares about the environment.”
The latest attack ads have the Lummis team portraying Mr. Gordon as a RINO (Republican In Name Only). It also blasts him for financially supporting John Kerry and Gary Trauner in previous elections and having held an office with the Sierra Club.
Meanwhile Mr. Gordon has tried humor in his attack ads. Not sure they are working, though.
Endorsements of Mr. Gordon by retired U. S. Sen. Malcolm Wallop and current State Treasurer Joe Meyer (who worked with Ms. Lummis for years) cover both ends of the GOP spectrum and may nullify the wounds inflicted by the Lummis campaign’s RINO assertions.
So who wins Tuesday’s GOP primary?
After polling my statewide constituency, the final tally is too close to call, but it looks like the winner will get less than 40 percent of the vote. This would be the lowest total for a statewide primary winner since Sen. Mike Enzi topped John Barrasso in 1996 with one-third of the vote.
The consensus prediction is something like this:
Cynthia Lummis – 39 percent.
Mark Gordon - 35 percent.
Bill Winney - 23 percent.
Michael Holland - 3 percent.
The election is Tuesday and then we will find out how my various prognosticators fared in their estimating.
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