Sunday, July 18, 2010
030 - Will governor candidates go negative with their campaigns?
Up to now, most of the candidates for governor have avoided what is called “going negative” during the 2010 political campaign.
This is commendable but it might just mean that a candidate that could have won will not win because of two much niceness.
Probably the best examples of recent statewide campaigns that succeeded that did not go negative were the two recent victories by Gov. Dave Freudenthal in 2002 and 2006.
In both cases, his campaign crew resisted the urge to go negative and pulled off an upset in 2002 and a landslide in 2006.
In a situation like his, I would contend he did not have to go negative. The media was picking apart his opponents in both races.
And, of course, the best strategy of all is to win. Period. If you can do it without going negative, that is the best of all.
But going negative does not mean smearing your opponent. It can mean a hard-hitting message campaign explaining why your plan is better than your opponents.
It can also elevate your candidacy because you are taking serious stands on serious issues and pointing out how your opponent(s) is dodging such issues.
At this point in the governor’s race, it is easy to praise the four main Republican candidates and the two main Democrats.
They are working mighty hard and have raised (and spent) a lot of money. They have put 250,000 miles on their cars criss-crossing this vast state of high altitudes and low multitudes.
With a little more than three weeks left, here are some observations:
• Ron Micheli of Fort Bridger has been critical of state spending and wants to cut it big-time. He blames lame duck Gov. Dave Freudenthal, but the GOP-controlled legislature is who approved all these expenditure growths.
This puts him at odds with many progressive representatives.
A nice guy with a great family, my worry of Ron is that he looks at Wyoming’s future through a rear view mirror. He wants to turn the clock back, which always sounds good but is almost impossible to do.
If he wins the primary, he could be the most vulnerable to a Democrat in the general.
• Rita Meyer was first to call for a “nice” campaign and recently published her donor list.
Although she started the campaign with a silly comment of possibly using the National Guard to fend off federal intrusions (which she quickly corrected), she has been doing well since.
I am surprised at the extent of her support across all political persuasions and across the state, which is considerable.
Rita’s humble beginnings sure are impressive in the one TV ad that I saw about her.
Could she pull this off? Don’t bet against her.
• Colin Simpson has the most Facebook supporters in Wyoming (over 2,000) and does a wonderful job of one-on-one campaigning.
For a man of his political experience and expertise, Simpson has reportedly stumbled a couple of times while giving major speeches. I would caution voters to not hold that against him.
We need leaders and most of our governors evolve into tremendous speakers after being in office for a while.
Simpson seemed to be the front-runner to me from day one, but this election is a crazy one.
He needs something to push him ahead. Some stroke of momentum, it would seem to me.
• Not sure why I am listing Matt Mead last on this list, but perhaps it is because he is slightly younger than Simpson.
He has run a strong and consistent campaign. He landed a huge endorsement from Gene Bryan, the godfather of Wyoming’s tourism industry (the state’s number-two business).
Most observers thought Mead might be running this time to get his feet wet for a later more serious try. Not so. He is in this to win and so far has not faltered.
• Democrat Leslie Petersen is the assumed front-runner for her party’s nomination, although Pete Gosar is offering a fresh face and pure Wyoming boy approach.
Leslie suffered an ugly black eye during our Pioneer Days parade in Lander on July 4, but managed to finish the parade before going to the emergency room. Showed true Wyoming spunk.
Errant fireworks caused her horse to buck and dive. Her face went down when her horse’s head went up . . . smack!
Time is running out for all these candidates. The next three weeks should be very exciting political times in Wyoming. I can’t wait.
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