The smartest person I know was giving me his opinion about the
future of jobs in Wyoming. It was a cautionary tale.
Jeff Wacker
was the staff futurist for the huge Hewlett-Packard Company and its 320,000
employees before retiring a few years ago.
Our family was
in north Dallas for Easter spending time with our daughter Amber, her husband
Craig and three grandchildren. Wacker used to be a neighbor of theirs and still
lives in the north Dallas area.
He grew up on
a farm near Alliance, NE but left the farm to be a computer programmer. He worked his way up the ladder at EDS, a
company founded by H. Ross Perot, where he became their futurist. When HP
acquired that company, he became their futurist. When he tried to explain to HP
that it needed to be a services company and not a hardware company, it was time
to retire, he said.
Wacker was the
speaker at a conference I attended in Scottsdale 12 years ago when we all
laughed when he held up his little cell phone and announced, “The future would
revolve around this little box.” Of course he was right. Later I chatted with him
and found out he lived in the same subdivision as my daughter. So we started
meeting for lunch whenever I got to Dallas.
He loves
Wyoming and our people. Perhaps being
from western Nebraska helps but he feels very comfortable with Cowboy State
values. He voted for Donald Trump and even listens to conservative radio hosts
occasionally.
Wacker thinks
Wyoming should be more aggressive in developing wind, solar and other
alternative energy supplies. He thinks the coal, oil, and natural gas will
still be viable sources of tax income to the Cowboy State for decades to come.
But he really
wanted to talk about the bigger picture, which he calls “the future without
jobs.”
He is working on
a book that goes into great detail about nanobots (tiny, invisible robots),
which will be everywhere in the near future. And these little buggers will
eliminate a lot of work, as we know it.
They will be
in our bloodstreams keeping us healthy. They will monitor everything that runs
and keep it all running. These tiny robots and lots of bigger ones, too, could
pretty much eliminate 60 percent of the jobs, which begs the question: what are
people going to do if there are no jobs?
Interestingly,
as I write this, Fremont County, Wyoming, where I live, has the highest
unemployment rate in the state and one of the highest in the country.
But who needs
jobs when you can get a guaranteed income?
Wacker is not
a big fan of UBI (Universal Basic Income), which is a hot topic in
California. But he sees it coming. And
coming fast.
Some version
of UBI used to be favored by about 10 percent of the population. Today, some 44
percent of the people in the USA favor some variation of it.
Essentially,
it means everyone will get a monetary stipend whether they work or not. If you want more, then you take one of the
scarce jobs that are left. Under a plan like this, every family in America will
get paid about $40,000 per year just for being a citizen.
Wacker calls
this future the Garden of Eden, where the individual has no worries. He also
fears it could be like the Eloi and the Morlocks in the Orwell story The Time Machine. If you recall from
that historic movie, the Eloi lived a life of leisure but ended up being like
cattle as the Morlocks ultimately ate them for dinner.
He says A. I.
(Artificial Intelligence) is coming fast, almost blindingly fast. He says China is working on a quantum
computer that if developed, which make encryption impossible and thus all
things could be controlled. He worries about this development.
Time will
shrink, he says, to where change will come along so fast, human beings will not
be able recognize or deal with the changes that are coming.
He asks the question: What happens
when intelligent machines make more intelligent machines? How can humans control this?
As a futurist,
these are the kinds of things that are worrisome.
So on the plus
side, we might live a lot longer and be a lot healthier. On the minus side, we
might be slaves to robots.
Even out here
in Wyoming, the future is rapidly heading our way.
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